Routing tactics for Global Solo Challenge

Marco Nannini, organizer of the 2023-24 Global Solo Challenge, provides an update for this solo, non-stop round the world race on January 11, 2024:

Two days ago, race leader Philippe Delamare (FRA) on his Actual 46 rounded Cape Horn. He did so at night, in the midst of some typical nasty Drake passage weather, with winds blowing around 35-40 knots and with the passage of a squally cold front bound to have brought gusts well over 50 knots.

Delamare chose a course which prudently allowed him to gain miles towards the south so as to create more room between him and the Chilean lee shore. He gave himself the option to stay off the continental shelf altogether or decide, on his final approach, if he felt comfortable venturing into the shallower waters south of the Cabo de Hornos archipelago that can bring the infamous messy and dangerous seas that made Cape Horn so dreaded through history.

He eventually chose to clip the corner of the protruding continental shelf whilst still giving a wide berth to Isla Cabo de Hornos passing around 15 nm offshore. Since his rounding conditions have hardly improved, and in fact a new severe storm was brewing just behind him, meaning he has not been able to let his guard down quite yet.

This is because just as Delamare rounded the Horn, the second place skipper Cole Brauer on her Class40 First Light seemed to have put her foot on the gas and started recording some impressive speeds which may have added to his pressure to ensure he did not waste the opportunity he had to cement his lead by enduring storm conditions for just a little longer.

The young American skipper kept her sight east and with a severe depression forming behind her, we held our breath wondering if she’d just take it on or whether she’d try to avoid the worst of the gyrating red inferno. Her course held steady and it soon became clear that she was aiming to stay just north of the center and bravely press on. In the space of just two days, she gained over 200 miles on the leader whose quietness seemed to be a sign of his need to concentrate on his route.

The scenario where Brauer could find a motorway to the Horn whilst Delamare buckled in on a conservative course to the west of the Falklands seemed to be a very real and possible development. By the 10th of January, the day following his rounding, Delamare’s estimated time of arrival margin had shrunk to just over 9 days, which may still seem a lot, but Cole had 3000 miles ahead of her of open Pacific Ocean whilst the French skipper could clearly see that the days of fast sailing were numbered for him, and taking the easier option west would have certainly exposed him to the American skipper’s attack.

Further up the route to the Spanish finish in A Coruna, and especially in the transition towards the trade winds conditions can be difficult. Near Brazil, the trades rotate to the point of being unfavorable whilst sailing north and around the latitude of Rio de Janeiro conditions can be fickle and tricky. Avoiding headwinds often means sailing through areas of high pressure with light following winds, certainly not the favorite point of sail for a displacement boat such as Mowgli.

We had therefore two parallel situations developing. On the one side, Delamare had to choose whether to endure another storm or play safe and go inshore of the Falklands, which in days to come would have certainly cost him a lot of precious time. And on the other side of the Andean Mountain Range, Brauer had her foot heavy on the gas and making some very serious gains.

Yet, simultaneously she had to look at what lay ahead for her in terms of developing weather patterns. Was there a motorway to the Horn for her? Well, not quite, and the weather scenarios were still difficult to decipher. Without a crystal ball at hand, Brauer and her shore team were certainly monitoring the first storm, which they decided to take full on without any course variations, as well as what was brewing in the Screaming Fifties pot.

It is very likely that the uncertain situation led Delamare to bite the bullet and brave yet another storm taking no chances with the American, after all he knows he is now out of the southern pacific motorway and that soon he’ll have to deal with the small country roads of the wiggly way up the South Atlantic, and that he can’t predict what the Pacific could bring to his closest rival.

On the afternoon of the 10th of January, things took an unexpected turn as Brauer was heading nearly due north on what seemed an inexplicable route. Many comments appeared on social media wondering whether she had encountered problems in the storm she had just faced; at some point she had even slowed down bringing some to fear the worst. In reality, the uncertain weather was developing in an unfavorable way threatening to put her into yet a new storm, which was upwind rather than downwind!

I can assure you that if sailing in 50-55 knots of wind (as she did in the last storm) seems like a hellish situation for many, you simply can’t imagine what sort of multiplying factor you have to use to describe how much worse it is to sail into the same conditions upwind. To put it simply, the risk of breaking the boat is so high that there is nothing to make that a choice worth considering.

The line where bravery becomes outright foolishness would be certainly crossed and if things were to go wrong, there would be no court of appeal to invoke ignorance as the laws of nature and physics, just like those in a court of law they do not let you get away with your mistakes by simply saying “I didn’t know”.

So, we come to today, where the Pacific brewing pot has started to swirl and cook its next storm. Her change of course and path to the north east, which the uninitiated thought was the indication that the American skipper was facing problems, are revealing her need to anticipate and avoid severe “boat-breaking” headwinds she would have encountered had she not taken action.

Brauer is routing again just to the north of the center of this new low, which is far from saying that she’s running away from the storm; she’s simply trying to position herself on “safe side” just north of the center, where she will still face a severe storm, but it won’t be upwind…

After this difficult moment and inevitable loss of extremely precious miles, she should find again fast sailing conditions, though difficult to say now if the motorway will be clear all the way to the Horn, but we can only wait and see. Obviously, the big question is, did Delamare’s choice to bite the bullet and stay in the strong following storm east of the Falklands combined with Brauer’s inevitable need to preserve the integrity of her boat by taking a detour to the north of her storm mean that a comeback and catch up is no longer possible?

She has passed the psychological point where she has less than ten thousand miles to go and let’s put it this way: to finish first you first have to finish, and just how tricky the route north in the South Atlantic can become for Delamare is impossible to predict.

All we know is that whilst Brauer has lost some time in the past two days, the French skipper has told us something important just through his actions and route, that he does not think he’s got his victory in the bag quite yet as he has been willing to take further risk to consolidate his lead.

If you love weather routing as much as I do, you’d probably also understand my absolute excitement in following all the developments. You also have to forgive me for focusing so much on this duel, but it is quite a key moment in the event, one that may shape the final result.

Race details – Entry list – Start times – Tracking

Attrition List:
DNS: Peter Bourke – Class40, Imagine
DNS: Ivan Dimov – Endur37, Blue Ibis
DNS: Curt Morlock – IMOCA, 6 Lazy K
DNS: Volkan Kaan Yemlihaoğlu – Open 70, Black Betty

RTD: Juan Merediz – Class40, Sorolla
RTD: Dafydd Hughes – S&S 34, Bendigedig
RTD: Ari Känsäkoski – Class40, ZEROchallenge

The inaugural Global Solo Challenge 2023-24 seeks to be a budget-friendly solo, non-stop race around the world. Using a pursuit format for the 2023-24 race, 20 entrants from 34 to 70 feet have start times between August 26 to January 6 from A Coruña, Spain, with the first boat to return deemed the winner.

Source: GSC