Warming planet affects our sailing plans

Earth is estimated to be 4.54 billion years old, plus or minus about 50 million years, and lately it has been warm. George Day for the Cruising Compass shares the recent outlook:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that 2023 was the warmest year on record and may well be the warmest year in the last 100,000 years.

The El Niño that has been heating up the South Pacific has created several storms in the Pacific and also seemed to dampen hurricane activity in the North Atlantic; it is forecast to fade away by May. And, last summer the waters around Florida, the Bahamas, and Gulf of Mexico warmed to over 100 degrees (F), which had never been recorded before. Warming oceans create fuel for storms that tends to intensify them rapidly and in unexpected ways.

The good news is that as the oceans warm and weather patterns change our access to weather forecasts has advanced to a huge degree. With so many cruising boats now carrying Starlink and IridiumGo systems (see the survey results below), we can tap into a wide range of weather data and forecasts in real time and consult easily with weather routers and other experts ashore.

NOAA is now forecasting that 2024 will be even warmer than 2023 so we can expect to face more storms that pack more punch and are less predictable. It’s up to us to be vigilant, be flexible and make sure we’re getting the best weather forecasts as possible. Happy New Year!