Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season to likely be above normal due to a confluence of factors that tend to favor tropical storm formation. While NOAA predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season, there remains a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.

“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.” – Full report