Ruling out weather in Bayesian disaster
Published on May 2nd, 2026
In August 2024, the 184-foot luxury yacht Bayesian sank in a storm at anchor off the Sicilian coast. Nearly two years later, blame is being decided. Report by Peter Swanson for Loose Cannon:
Italian prosecutors deciding whether to prosecute the captain and crew of the Bayesian have concluded that high winds were not to blame—directly contradicting British accident investigators and experts who spoke to Loose Cannon.
Seven of the 22 people on board the 184-foot sailing yacht were drowned, including owner Michael Lynch, a tech billionaire. Bayesian sunk on August 19, 2024 while at anchor off the coast of Sicily. Italian authorities are considering multiple counts of manslaughter and negligence for the yacht’s captain and two of its crew members.
A British television news channel broke the story yesterday, writing:
Sky News understands they have found it amounted to “little more than a squall, a sudden increase in wind speed that precedes thunderstorms and downpours”, which should have been manageable for the crew.
According to the preliminary findings, the yacht therefore sank due to the crew’s improper actions, their underestimation of the weather, and certain safety devices not being activated properly. – Full report



