2022 Atlantic Hurricane outlook update

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is still expected to be busier than average, despite a pair of just-released lowered outlooks.

Colorado State University now forecasts a total of 18 named storms, eight of which are projected to become hurricanes and four major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher status), in their latest update released August 4, 2022.

That’s a reduction of two storms and two hurricanes from their previous outlook in early July 2022.

NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) also called for a slight reduction in the number of storms and major hurricanes in their updated outlook released on the same day, expecting anywhere from 14 to 20 storms, six to 10 of which are projected to become hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.

These outlooks include the three named storms – Alex, Bonnie and Colin – that have already formed this season.

Despite the slight downtick, both forecasts remain above the 1991-2020 average of 14 storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

While the pace of three named storms so far through early August is on par with an average season, it’s been over a month since the last named storm, Colin.

Sinking, dry, dust-laden air from Africa’s Sahara Desert has pushed westward across the Atlantic Basin through July, a typical suppressing factor early in the hurricane season.

One reason for the slight downward adjustment in the season outlooks involves the distribution of warmer- and cooler-than-average Atlantic Ocean water. – Full report